Who is the Preconomist?

Preconomist – noun – the individual who provides precise cost information based on questionable concept design information while forecasting future economic conditions (see also – masochist, glutton for punishment, agony enthusiast)

Like how the great Admiral James B. Stockdale opened the 1992 Vice Presidential debate, "Who am I? Why am I here?"

I am the Preconomist.

My blog focuses on sharing construction economics from the preconstruction perspective or “precon economics.” My posts will discuss the issues we face today in our construction economy, market and geopolitical landscape. Trends, data, events, and other factors that affect construction will be analyzed for both immediate and future impacts.

What makes me qualified to spew economics information?

Great question! 

While I am not a formally trained economist, I have immersed myself deeper and deeper into the study of economics. Each day is a new rabbit hole to fall down or an interrelation to explore. I am like a sponge, absorbing books, podcasts and conversations with economists. I think in numbers, probabilities, and percentages. Excel is my primary language, English is my second language.

I have a degree in Civil and Environmental Engineering, am a licensed Professional Engineer, and hold nine sustainability credentials. My 26 year career has been spent in preconstruction. I know what is happening in the industry both locally and nationally. I track indices and global events. This allows me to make assessments of future costs, supply chain issues, and industry trends. I look at leading, coincident, and lagging indicators relating to design, construction and the economy. I track lead times, material availability and cost changes. 

All this information leads to providing market analysis, making cost projections and material recommendations and assessing risk and for strategic decision making. 

Time to get this party started!

To loosely quote the former Federal Reserve Chair William McChesney Martin, Jr. from a speech given in October 1955, “The Federal Reserve Preconomist…is in the position of the chaperone who has ordered the punch bowl removed just when the party was really warming up.”

It's the job of the Preconomist to see how that punch affects you after you had a couple of glasses and to keep you from getting too drunk too fast. The Preconomist is the voice of reason in the room. They are the responsible thinker who knows the state of the market and what shocks may lie ahead to a project and our firms. They see the results of market movements and to communicate that information to our executive and project teams to ensure smart decision making.

It’s last call for punch… so grab a glass before I put the bowl away, sit back, and prepare for the unexpected as you enjoy the party!