The Preconomist

What the ABI and DMI Are Actually Telling You The nonresidential construction market has two widely cited leading indicators. Both are released monthly. Both claim to forecast where building activity is headed roughly nine to twelve months out. In March, they appeared to diverge. One recovering toward neutral, the other pulling back from an elevated peak. Most readers see the headlines and move on. Few ask what these figures measure, or if the signals are as reliable as advertised. The Architecture Billings Index (ABI), published monthly by the American Institute of Architects and Deltek, is a diffusion index. It is based on a survey of architecture firms asking whether their billings increased, decreased, or held steady compared to the prior month. The result is a score centered on 50. Above 50 means more firms reported growth than decline. Below 50 means the opposite. Since the ABI measures direction, not dollars, inflation does not distort it. Its limitations are different. It is a ...

Metals, Construction Costs, and What the Data Actually Shows A year ago, the construction industry was running escalation scenarios and stress-testing contingencies against a tariff framework nobody fully understood. The numbers are in now. Some fears were overblown; some weren't. And a few risks that didn't make the original list are the ones that should be keeping us up at night heading into summer. What happened a year ago, and what's happened since? This wasn't a single tariff event. It was a fourteen-month escalation ladder. In February 2025, the Trump administration expanded Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum, eliminating most prior exemptions. By June 2025, rates had risen to 50% on core metal imports. In July 2025, copper was added at the same rate. Then, on April 2, 2026, the framework was restructured again: commodity metals stay at 50%, while derivative products tier down to 25% or 15% depending on metal content and country of origin. The policy is...

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its third and final estimate of fourth-quarter 2025 GDP on Thursday, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the March 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday. Two numbers that moved markets and generated headlines. Neither one tells the full story on its own, and for construction owners trying to read the budget environment, the internals matter more than the headlines. Start with GDP. The number keeps changing. Why? The Q4 2025 GDP estimate has now been revised three times. The advance estimate in February came in at 1.4% annualized. The second estimate in March revised down to 0.7%. The third and final estimate released Thursday came in at 0.5%. That is a cumulative reduction of 0.9 percentage points across three releases. The reason the number keeps moving is structural. The advance estimate is published roughly a month after the quarter ends and relies heavily on incomplete source data and BEA assumptions. As Censu...

On February 28, the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran. Within days, Iranian forces declared the Strait of Hormuz closed and began attacking commercial shipping. Brent crude opened that week at nearly $71 per barrel and briefly broke $100. This represented a 51% one-month gain, the second largest since futures trading began in 1983. Emergency policy measures partially walked that back, with Brent settling in the $92–105 range through late March. Gas prices crossed $4 per gallon nationally. The Strait carries roughly 20 million barrels per day, or about 27% of global maritime oil trade. When it shuts, there is no short-term substitute. Why should construction professionals be focused on something other than gas prices? Because gasoline is not a construction input. Diesel is. The two are not affected equally by this disruption. Refineries optimized for Gulf production run on light-sweet crude. When that feedstock disappears, they face a choice: substitute heavier c...

 The Middle East conflict dominates financial headlines, but for construction owners and developers the story arrives through different channels. It is material quotes, freight surcharges, and lead time notices. Energy prices are not background noise. They are embedded in the petrochemical feedstocks that become piping, insulation, roofing membrane, and sealants. When crude prices spike, construction budgets feel it but not immediately, and not all at once. They are felt with a persistence that outlasts the headlines.   The critical question for owners and developers is not whether this conflict affects their projects. It does. The question is how much and for how long. That depends almost entirely on how the conflict resolves. Before we examine the implications, three historical episodes offer important context: the Gulf War of 1990-1991, Hurricane Katrina in 2005, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Figures 1, 2, and 3 track crude petroleum, diesel fuel, and plast...

Input costs are running faster than bid prices. The Iran energy shock isn't in the data yet. And the commodity markets are already telling us where the next PPI reading is headed.     The 3.7% year-over-year input number looks manageable. What's the real story? The year-over-year framing obscures the pace. Through just two months, construction input costs are running at a 12.6% annualized rate. That pace was set before the Iran conflict moved oil toward $100 per barrel. There is also a diesel tailwind embedded in the February headline that is already obsolete by the time you are reading this. The PPI has a hard measurement cutoff. The commodity markets do not. The table below reflects what is already in motion, a preview of where the next PPI reading is heading, not a refinement of this one.   Diesel up 36.7% in a single month is the Iran war arriving in energy prices in real time. The February PPI still shows diesel as a tailwind. That tailwind is gone. PVC at ...

The February Construction Backlog Indicator says the market is stable. The data underneath says something more complicated. The headline backlog number is up from January. Isn’t that good news? Technically, yes. Directionally, it depends on where you're standing. ABC's Construction Backlog Indicator (CBI) rose to 8.1 months in February, up 0.1 from January, but context matters here. January's reading was a four-year low. You don't pop champagne because you climbed off the floor. When you look at the year-over-year picture, backlog is down 0.2 months from February 2025. The correct read isn't that "the market is growing", but rather it's "the market stopped falling, for now." This is a meaningful distinction if you're budgeting, hiring, or bidding work in 2026. So is this still a "yellow light" market? Yes. February's data makes that case more precisely than January did. The headline number is steady enough to fee...