The Preconomist

CPI dropped Tuesday with PPI following on Wednesday. One measures what consumers are paying and the other measures what it costs to produce. Together they tell you something the headlines missed. CPI hit 3.8 percent in April, the highest in three years, driven by the Iran energy shock. But that is the consumer story, the construction story lives in the PPI, and it is not primarily about energy. PPI data shows nonresidential construction material inputs up 6.6% year over year, but bid prices are only up 3.6%. What does that spread mean? It means contractors are absorbing costs they cannot fully pass through. Inputs measure what it costs to build, while bid prices measure what the market will pay to have something built. When inputs outrun bid prices by 300 basis points, someone is carrying that difference. In construction, that difference lands in contractor margins. It does not stay there indefinitely. The compressed margin eventually shows up as fewer bidders, shorter bid list...

The April employment report landed this week. Here is what the construction numbers tell us. The headline number was 115,000 jobs added across the economy in April. What happened in construction specifically? Construction employment showed little change in April on a month-over-month basis. This is notable since April is historically one of the strongest months of the year for construction hiring. Seasonal patterns push workers back onto sites as weather improves and project activity accelerates. A flat reading in April is not neutral, it is a miss relative to what the calendar normally delivers. The year-over-year picture adds context. Construction employment in April 2026 is 50,000 higher than it was in April 2025. That sounds reasonable until you compare it to where that number has been. In April 2024, the year-over-year gain was 215,000. In April 2025, it was 101,000. Over the last ten years the average is 243,400 when you exclude the spikes in 2020 and 2021. In April 2026, it is 5...

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its advance estimate of first quarter 2026 GDP this week The headline number, 2.0% annualized real growth, will dominate the financial press. It represents a meaningful rebound from the fourth quarter's 0.5% reading, and on its face signals an economy that is holding together under considerable pressure. For most readers, that is the story. For owners, developers, and preconstruction professionals in the nonresidential construction market, the story is in a different table entirely. What drove the Q1 GDP print? The BEA attributed Q1 growth to increases in investment, exports, consumer spending, and government spending. The investment category carries the most weight for construction audiences, but the composition matters. Gains in equipment, led by computers and peripheral equipment reflecting the ongoing AI infrastructure buildout, and intellectual property products drove the investment contribution. Private inventory investment also added ...