The Preconomist

 The Middle East conflict dominates financial headlines, but for construction owners and developers the story arrives through different channels. It is material quotes, freight surcharges, and lead time notices. Energy prices are not background noise. They are embedded in the petrochemical feedstocks that become piping, insulation, roofing membrane, and sealants. When crude prices spike, construction budgets feel it but not immediately, and not all at once. They are felt with a persistence that outlasts the headlines.   The critical question for owners and developers is not whether this conflict affects their projects. It does. The question is how much and for how long. That depends almost entirely on how the conflict resolves. Before we examine the implications, three historical episodes offer important context: the Gulf War of 1990-1991, Hurricane Katrina in 2005, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Figures 1, 2, and 3 track crude petroleum, diesel fuel, and plast...

Input costs are running faster than bid prices. The Iran energy shock isn't in the data yet. And the commodity markets are already telling us where the next PPI reading is headed.     The 3.7% year-over-year input number looks manageable. What's the real story? The year-over-year framing obscures the pace. Through just two months, construction input costs are running at a 12.6% annualized rate. That pace was set before the Iran conflict moved oil toward $100 per barrel. There is also a diesel tailwind embedded in the February headline that is already obsolete by the time you are reading this. The PPI has a hard measurement cutoff. The commodity markets do not. The table below reflects what is already in motion, a preview of where the next PPI reading is heading, not a refinement of this one.   Diesel up 36.7% in a single month is the Iran war arriving in energy prices in real time. The February PPI still shows diesel as a tailwind. That tailwind is gone. PVC at ...

The February Construction Backlog Indicator says the market is stable. The data underneath says something more complicated. The headline backlog number is up from January. Isn’t that good news? Technically, yes. Directionally, it depends on where you're standing. ABC's Construction Backlog Indicator (CBI) rose to 8.1 months in February, up 0.1 from January, but context matters here. January's reading was a four-year low. You don't pop champagne because you climbed off the floor. When you look at the year-over-year picture, backlog is down 0.2 months from February 2025. The correct read isn't that "the market is growing", but rather it's "the market stopped falling, for now." This is a meaningful distinction if you're budgeting, hiring, or bidding work in 2026. So is this still a "yellow light" market? Yes. February's data makes that case more precisely than January did. The headline number is steady enough to fee...

  The February jobs report dropped Friday and the headline was ugly. Nonfarm payrolls fell 92,000, the third loss in five months, against a consensus expectation of a 50,000 gain. Not a miss. A reversal. Markets flinched. Commentators called it a warning sign. What does it mean for construction? Start with the construction number, because it's the one most likely to mislead you. The industry shed 11,000 jobs in February after adding 48,000 in January. Taken in isolation, that looks like a reversal. It isn't. That January spike was almost certainly a weather artifact, an unusually mild stretch pulled forward activity, and February paid it back. The two months together average roughly +18,500/month, which is consistent with a sector that's been grinding forward on a narrow base of healthcare, pharma, and data center demand. Don't read the February construction number as a leading indicator of project pipeline softening. Read it as noise. So if the construction job l...