The Preconomist

  If you feel like you're running up a down escalator, you aren't imagining it. While mainstream headlines often fixate on nominal dollar records in the broader economy, those of us in preconstruction see a different math. Yesterday's Census Bureau release for December 2025 spending data (finally out after the federal delays) tells a story of a sector that isn't just stalled; it's effectively shrinking when adjusted for the cost of doing business. The Census Bureau noted a 0.3% increase year-over-year in nonresidential spending. When adjusted for escalation, that figure becomes a -3.8% decrease in real spending year-over-year. How long has this been trending downward? We have now hit a somber milestone: overall nonresidential spending, when measured in real dollars, has declined year-over-year for 15 consecutive months. This marks every month since October 2024. In 2023, the industry saw a massive surge that outpaced inflation. But since late 2024, the script ...

  Valentine’s Day is an expensive holiday. While some joke that greeting card companies invented the day to juice profit margins, the current cost of a gift is no laughing matter. Gold prices are hovering near record highs (a topic for a future post), but that heart-shaped box of chocolate will cost you roughly 231% more than it did four years ago. What is driving this "Cocoa-nomics" crisis? To understand the price spike, you need to look at West Africa. Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana produce roughly 60% to 70% of the world’s cocoa. Over the last two years, this region was hammered by record-breaking rains that rotted pods on the trees, followed by a brutal El Niño-driven drought. The 2023/2024 season saw production plunge by 25%, leading to the lowest global yields in decades. This was compounded by a massive spike in production costs. Following geopolitical tensions in 2022, fertilizer prices skyrocketed as Russia and Belarus, two top exporters, were largely sidelined. Many ...